Here are some early thoughts on the possible pluses and minuses of the pick:
STEALING THE THUNDER GRADE: A+
The announcement, coming only half a day after Barack Obama’s night at the Dem’s convention, grabbed the headlines and the political chatter away from what most commentators are calling a brilliant speech.
A SECRET OR A SWITCH? GRADE: Incomplete
Was Gov. Palin McCain’s choice all along (or at least all week) or did he make a last minute switch in reaction to Obama’s performance? The answer is sure to emerge within the next few weeks.
If it was the choice all along, McCain gets A+ for keeping secrets.
If it was a switch, McCain gets an F for allowing the Dem’s to scare him into making what will be seen as a desperation play.
VETTED? GRADE: Incomplete
If Gov. Palin was a late choice, was she fully vetted?
The purpose for vetting process is to find out any possible embarrassments in the candidates past – did he duck the draft, did she write an outrageous book, what about drugs, drunk driving, membership in the Communist Party?
If she was vetted (or not vetted, but squeaky clean), no problem. If not, rut roh.
POSITIONS GRADE: Mixed
Governor Palin’s conservative positions on abortion and other social issues and her NRA membership will help McCain with his base (and probably won’t have much effect on moderates).
Her support for a Windfall Profits Tax on oil companies may give McCain a bit of agita.
Her environmental record is somewhat mixed - pro-drilling in protected areas, anti-polar bear protection, but on most other environmental issues (and as an out-doors-woman and hunter) has a green record.
IMAGE GRADE: A+ (but final grade isn’t in)
Reformer, young, attractive, son headed for Iraq. May have an ethics problem back in Juneau, but could prove minor.
ONE HEART BEAT FACTOR GRADE: F
Mayor of a small town, less than two years as Governor – this throws the “Obama is inexperienced argument” out the window. No national or foreign affairs bona fides.
Vice-Presidential inexperience is not usually a giant factor, but McCain’s age and health make the “one heart beat away from the Presidency” factor extremely important.
If she survives the debate with Biden (even if she loses on points) this will be a victory. If she gets blown out of the water the pain will come.
THE GENDER FACTOR GRADE B
McCain will get points for the novelty of the choice. Some female independents (and perhaps some number of unhappy Hillary Dem’s) will be won over. However, if the choice ends up being framed as a desperation move or as pandering, it will hurt. Pandering is the heart of politics, but you’re not allowed to be seen doing it.
McCain may lose some anti-female Neanderthals to Bob Barr or “None-of-the-above.”
OVERVIEW
The choice was a definite short term gain, but may be a negative in the long term. What we learn over the next few weeks will decide. Was she a last-minute switch, will it be seen as a fresh idea or a desperation move, did the vetting miss any land mines, is she ready to have every part of her life scrutinized, can she present herself as ready to take over the Presidency?
Anybody think this election isn’t interesting?